Two national polls today show differing results; Romney is close in Florida and Virginia, but down in Ohio; Romney's gaffe was worse than Obama's; and the Democrat might be winning the Arizona senate race. Here's our guide to today's polls and why they matter.?
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Findings:?A National Journal poll has Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent each among likely voters, but an NPR poll has Obama with a seven point lead among them. Pollster:? ,? ? Methodology:?For National Journal: Poll of 1,005 adults, including 789 likely votes, September 27 through 30 with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentages points. For NPR: Poll of 800 likely voters September 26 through 30 with a margin of error of +/-3.46 percentage points. Why it matters:?The narrative is that the race is once again growing tighter. The?National Journal poll would support this, and as?Michael Tomasky , Republicans are "touting" it. That said, while the NPR poll would seem to present a sunnier picture for Obama, write that "the poll also finds former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney very much within striking distance of the incumbent as the two men begin a series of three debates Wednesday in Denver."? Caveat:?Tomasky explains that there might be something off with the?National Journal's demographics. While their respondents are 74 percent white, matching up with the exit polls from 2008, a demographer has predicted that turnout among that group will drop. However, Tomasky has "a hard time seeing" black turnout dropping from 2008, which the?Journal?poll demographics appear to show it doing.?
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Findings:?Obama has a one point lead in Florida and a two point lead in Virginia among likely voters, but an eight point lead in Ohio.? Pollster:? Methodology:?For : Poll of 969 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-3.1 percent. For : Poll of 890 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-3.3 percent. For : Poll of 931 likely voters with a margin of error of +/-3.2 percent. Why it matters:?Sara Murray writes in the?Journal that these new polls show that the race is "highly competitive." That said, it's looking grim for Romney in Ohio, but the closeness of the other two races implies that if he loses that one he still has a chance to win in the states he would need. The question then becomes should Romney pull out of Ohio, but?The New Republic's Nate Cohn : "If you want to know whether Romney can quit Ohio, don't just look at FL and VA, look at IA, NV, WI, CO, VA, FL." A Marquette University Law School Poll shows Obama up by 11 points . ? Caveat:?A debate can change things around.?
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Findings:?As , an NBC News/Wall Street Journal?poll reveals that Romney's "47 percent" comments hurt more than Obama's "You didn't build that" among registered voters. Whereas 32 percent said their opinions of Obama were "more negative" after his verbal faux pas, 36 said their opinions were "more positive." As for Romney's "47 percent," 45 percent said their opinions were "more negative" and only 23 percent had a "more positive impression."? Pollster:?Democratic pollster Peter Hart and?Republican Bill McInturff for? Methodology:?Poll of 1,000 registered voters September 26 through 30 with a margin of error of +/-3.10 percent. Why it matters:?As Weigel writes: "This poll's got a 32% Democratic, 20% Republican sample. Can we safely assume that people who like Barack Obama like 'build that,' and people who dislike Obama don't? If so, sweet fancy Moses was the Republican convention ever a bust. " The RNC harped on "you didn't build that," but Romney's "47 percent" gaffe seems to have had a more lasting effect on voters. Caveat:?Debates provide the opportunity for new gaffes.
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Findings:?Democrat Richard Carmona has taken a two-point lead over Republican Jeff Flake in a new Public Policy Polling poll of the Arizona state senate race.? Pollster: Methodology:?Poll of 595 likely Arizona voters October 1 through 3 with a margin of error of +/-4 percent. Why it matters:?Even as Obama is down by nine points in the presidential race in the state, the Democratic senate candidate is taking the lead, at least according to PPP. Another recent poll doesn't? , but does show a tight race. Caveat:?PPP leans left, but : "Obama's down by 9 on our Arizona poll even as Carmona leads by 2...not a crazy pro-Dem sample"? ?
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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/race-tied-obama-7-205805399.html
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