By Tom Walker, Director, Assaye Risk
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COUNTRY OVERVIEW
Heightened levels of violence and increased sectarian tensions dominated reporting in Iraq this week.? The relative uneasy calm of last week was shattered by an increase in bombings, IDF attacks and assassinations across the country, with the majority of the violence predominantly in the North and Centre of Iraq.? In line with this higher tempo of attacks the number of country wide fatalities rose proportionally to a 2013 high of approx. 170 killed during the week (the majority by IED actions), further bringing the yearly total up to appox. 483.? The increased operational tempo of the ISF has continued through the week, however in contrast to previous weeks the hard stance and dampening affect seen last week appears to have had little effect on insurgent operations in key areas such as Mosul and Diyala.
Interwoven themes ? The Iraqi budget, the demonstration movement and mounting sectarian tensions ? dominated the national media this week. Friday prayers on 01 Mar once again saw a mass mobilisation of the Sunni community across the country in protest against GoI.? Despite the peaceful nature of the movement the fact that Sunnis are now mobilising in such large numbers has alarmed Western diplomats, who fear the demonstrations could re-spark the sectarian conflict that plagued the country between 2005 and 2008.? This increase in activity by the Sunni community has led to a classic counter reaction from Shia insurgents groups, taking the form of heavy posturing, widespread intimidation and assasinations, most notably by a new group called the Mukthar Army, an Iranian backed militia, who rose to prominence earlier this year. Furthermore, much is being reported of the accusations, made by Sunni politicians, that the authorities are seeking to escalate sectarian tensions through similar means in order to provoke a strong sectarian backlash that provides the pretext to forcefully break up the protest movement.
At the international level the conflict from Syria spilled across into Iraqi territory this week with sharp consequences.? The early part of the week saw increased activity by rebel groups inside Syria targeting government positions in close proximity to the Iraqi border.? Incursions, strafing and rocketing were reported along the length of the Iraqi / Syrian frontier with Rabee?a border crossing point coming under direct contact from fighting inside Syria.? Syrian warplanes repeatedly violated Iraqi airspace apparently bombing and strafing the Yaarabiya border crossing point in Nineveh province from Iraqi airspace.? Reports also suggested that the Iraqi Army had fired upon Syrian rebels.? Of particular note was the ambushing in western Iraq of a convoy repatriating Syrian soldiers who had fled intense fighting on the border, which resulted in the deaths of approx. 62, including 9 members of the ISF.
The latter part of the week saw a public inquiry open in London into allegations that up to 20 Iraqis were murdered after a gun battle with British troops in 2004. The inquiry will also examine claims that detainees captured at the same time were mistreated and comes on the back of a court appeal made by over 100 Iraqi civilians in November 2011 who petitioned for a new public inquiry into allegations of systematic torture by British soldiers serving in Iraq.
NORTHERN REGION
There were at least two Turkish air attacks against positions of the PKK in Dohuk this week, following the bombing of 12 hideouts on 20 February and the subsequent bombing of PKK positions in the Qandil Mountains last week.? Four militants were reported killed. These attacks were likely intended to maintain pressure on the PKK as speculation continues to circulate regarding the legitimacy of the much vaunted PKK ceasefire reported last week.
Activity in Nineveh was steady this week with a increase in attacks despite the increased security presence and activity in Mosul.? The focus of the majority of high impact attacks was the ISF with smaller scale SAF attacks and assassinations aimed at higher profile figures within the civilian population. 26 Feb saw soldiers detain a Sunni cell commander in the northeastern district of Hayy al-Qadisiyahal-Thaniyah, believed to specialise in VBIEDs and close-quarter assassinations. This however did not prevent the simultaneous detonation of two VBIEDs in Hayy al-Zera?i, where 2 soldiers lost their lives and 8 others, including 5 civilians, were wounded. Furthermore, on the 27 Feb the day ended with the fourth suicide VBIED attack in the city in one week where a vehicle rammed an army checkpoint killing at least 6 soldiers and wounding another 8. In the far south of the province, movement restrictions were imposed in al-Qayyarah and al-Shorah, as part of a province wide operation by the ISF to search interdict and detain those responsible for the suicide VBIED detonations in the provincial capital.
Activity across the remaining northern provinces changed little over the week.? The number of incidents in Kirkuk fell by almost two thirds compared to the previous week possibly due to a dearth in resources as a result of interdiction operations by the ISF after a spate of attacks in Kirkuk, which started 18 Feb.? Sala-al-Din saw continued Sunni insurgent activity manifested in a series of low yield IED strikes in the west of the province and predominantly in those urban areas straddling the Tigris Valley.
After Baghdad and Nineveh, Diyala was the most violent province this week with a majority of incidents reported in the provincial capital, Baqubah. After the Suicide VBIED attack against the Governor?s residence last week (a particularly bold attack followed up with a ground assault) insurgent groups this week would appear to have opted for a less manpower intensive modes of attack, preferring instead to lay multiple IEDs along arterial routes in the province as a means of pressing home their recent campaign whilst simultaneously conserving resources and manpower.
WEST
At the wider provincial level Al-Anbar continues to have a low level of incidences, however there was a localised spike in activity along the Syria / Iraq border with the ambush of the convoy returning Syrian army soldiers to Syria.? No group has claimed the attack however the area remains heavily dominated by Sunni tribes well known to actively sympathise with the Syrian opposition, who most likely have exploited an open opportunity to attack a vulnerable target.? This ties in with the previous weeks reporting of a much-increased level of smuggling supplies to rebel units along the border indicating that the resources to mount a well-planned attack would have most certainly been place.? Furthermore, the focus of Sunni insurgent groups has shifted toward the border areas recently after their attempts to monopolise the protest movement failed and ISF increased their tempo of operations in and around the major urban areas in Al-Anbar.
Friday prayers also dominated events in Al-Anbar which saw huge turn outs at anti GoI rallies in both Ramadi and Fallujah, however despite the insurgent focus on the Syria / Iraq border there was also continued rocketing of ISF facilities and an increase in the number of assassinations against prominent Iraqi civilians working for the GoI suggesting that insurgent groups remain keenly interested in trying to influence events around the protest movement.
CENTRAL
Attacks in the towns on the periphery of the national capital were unremarkable this week with a near continuous rate of low yield IED strikes taking place along the major arterial routes into Baghdad. This was entirely in keeping with local Sunni terrorist activity and does not represent any change in threat for Western or other foreign concerns transiting these roads. In Baghdad SAF attacks predominated, mainly in western districts, involving further Sunni terrorist penetration of Sadr City following recent VBIED attacks of the past weeks.
Continued protest activity at several locations including the International Zone has continued to escalate sectarian tensions and, as with other major urban centres in Iraq, a clear theme for the week in Baghdad and surrounding areas has been the marked increase in intimidation and sectarian assassination killings. Sunni areas of Baghdad have been abuzz with talk of a fresh campaign of targeted assassinations and intimidation by Shia militants, allegedly to frighten them from joining in the street protests that have been happening across the country. In the sprawling Jihad district of Baghdad, security was stepped up last week after threatening fliers were distributed claiming to be from the Mukhtar Army. They warned Sunni residents to leave or face ?great agony?. The Mukthar Army, or Jaish al-Mukhtar (?The Army of the Chosen?), first came to notice in the first week of February 2013 and appears to have been set up under the auspices of Iraqi Hezbollah to ?protect? the Shi?a community from terrorism.
SOUTHERN
No significant change.? Incidents associated with insurgent activity and sectarian tensions persist at an all time low in the Southern regions with what few incidents taking place being mainly inter Shia or tribal rivalry and organised criminal activity.? What little terrorist violence there was focused in northern Babel with a spate of actual or attempted IED attacks against the homes of prominent ISF personnel.? In a similar attack from one that occurred in Abu Ghraib a Provincial Elections candidate was also attacked this week in Babel.? Of note was the 01Mar VBIED attack that took place in the Affak District east of Diwaniyah, which resulted in the deaths of 6 civillians and 60 wounded.
There remains a specific and potent kidnap and extortion threat toward foreigners and foreign businesses operating in the Basrah, Dhi Qar and Maysan areas.?? Furthermore, the possibility of a sectarian motivated high impact attack is omnipresent, especially in the sensitive and religiously important areas of Babil, Karbala, Najaf, Wasit and Basrah.
Source: http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2013/03/07/weekly-security-update-37/
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